I wonder how many people are looking at the big picture regarding the death of bin Laden. I wonder if American realize how little non-symbolic importance it has to the general fates of the US. The objective observer in me however, is fascinated by the very real impact this will all have on the South Asian political landscape. Most folks who can put two and two together can see these events will have a quite dramatic and direct effect on the future of Pakistan. But I wonder if many are thinking of the secondary and tertiary changes it will bring to India and China.
I’d like to first give a little background on India and Pakistan. Former British colonies-Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh (formerly known as East Pakistan) were created and partitioned during Britain’s hamfisted attempts at fairness during its colonial withdrawals following World War II. In effect, Britain divided the subcontinent into one large Hindu and two smaller Muslim enclaves to prevent infighting following the British withdrawal. However the abuses, forced relocations, and territorial disputes that ensued assured the permanent enmity between these nations. We can not also forget the blithe ignorance of the indigenous Sikh minority, but that’s immaterial for the moment. For the sake of efficiency, I’m also going to ignore Bangladesh. Currently one of the poorest nations on earth, its primary activity is sinking into the ocean every monsoon season.
What followed the partition has been a constant hot and cold war between the two. When both India and Pakistan developed nuclear weapons, no one was confused over who they were meant for . However, for 10 years Pakistan has enjoyed a strange safety net. By being an Islamic partner in the “War on Terror”, Pakistan gained the aid and protection of the US.
With bin Laden’s death and his presence so close to Pakistani forces under… confusing circumstances, it appears US protection and aid for Pakistan will soon dry up.
This I believe will have a few interesting results. First, it will give India to chance to exert more pressure on Pakistan. As an emerging economic power I believe India will receive no complaints from the West over it.
This however is most likely a predicted and prepared-for result, something most of the world is ready for. A certain unpredictable and worrisome factor is the Pakistani response to this. One could easily imagine great unrest. It would be entirely possible a power could arise in Pakistan blaming the West for its weakness against their neighbors. In addition it is not improbable to imagine a government irresponsible enough to strike an India they now perceive as Western-backed.
A subcontinental Cold War grows hot again.
Into this ugly mix we must now throw in a third player, China.
Since World War 2 China and India have had strained to outright hostile relations. Both are suspicious of the expansionist designs on the other, which was aggravated by the Chinese conquest of Tibet and the Indian support of the Dali Lama. These tensions led to an actual combat during the Sino-Indian War in 1962. While relations are currently ‘correct’, both nations are still rivals-both economically and in the quest for Asian hegemony. As the center of world power creeps towards Beijing, this rivalry has taken a more desperate note. India does not want China being in control, and China doesn’t want to see any interference from India in its orderly rise to power.
China has been able to enjoy a nice counterbalance to India in Pakistan. A thorn in their rival’s side, untouchable under the American aegis. But now the situation has been drastically altered.
China, unlike Pakistan, is fortunately very predictable. Everyone knows China wants to be on top, and wants to do it in the most stable, peaceful way possible. Anything that might interrupt this would be hateful and anathema to the desires of the People’s Republic.
I am unwilling to imagine so far as to how China might respond to a new Indo-Pakistani conflict, or the domination of Pakistan by India. But I can assure they would do whatever it takes to restore a balance of stable power, no matter how many bodies it takes